The war in the Middle East has caused severe disruptions to global oil and gas supply chains, with damage and shutdowns affecting key facilities such as liquefied natural gas plants, refineries, and fuel storage sites. This has pushed estimated repair costs to around $25 billion so far, according to Rystad Energy, with expectations of further increases.

Estimates suggest that the largest share of these costs will be directed toward engineering and construction work, followed by spending on equipment and materials.

Qatar bears the brunt of the damage

Ras Laffan Industrial City has been the hardest hit, with the destruction of LNG trains S4 and S6 forcing a declaration of force majeure and reducing production capacity by 17%, equivalent to 12.8 million tons per year.

Despite the scale of required investment, full recovery could take up to five years due to limited availability of large gas turbines needed for operations, which are produced by only three global companies and already face multi-year backlogs driven by demand from data centers and the energy transition.

Structural constraints hinder recovery

Recovery of the Gulf’s energy sector is not expected to depend solely on financing but also on structural constraints, as some facilities can be repaired within months while others may remain offline for years.

Two cases stand out as particularly concerning:

South Pars field in Iran

Ras Laffan facility in Qatar

In Iran, sanctions further complicate the situation, forcing reliance on domestic and Chinese companies, which could slow repair efforts and increase costs.

Bahrain and the impact of timing

In Bahrain, the Sitra refinery operated by Bapco sustained significant damage after being targeted twice, affecting distillation units and storage tanks.

The issue is compounded by the timing of the attack, as it came shortly after the completion of a $7 billion upgrade project, disrupting newly added capacity and delaying expected returns.

Varying levels of damage across the region

Other countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, experienced less severe disruptions, but the speed of recovery depends heavily on the strength of local engineering and contracting capabilities.

Saudi Aramco provides a notable example, having resumed operations quickly at the Ras Tanura facility thanks to pre-established maintenance teams.

Priorities for the next phase

Companies are expected to focus in the coming phase on:

Restarting existing fields rather than developing new projects

Accelerating inspection, engineering, and commissioning work

Increasing demand for contractors and equipment suppliers

Amid ongoing sanctions, local and Asian firms are likely to secure the largest share of reconstruction work in Iran.

The pace of recovery remains dependent on execution capacity and equipment availability, as well as developments in the war itself, which could delay a return to pre-conflict production levels for an extended period.

Wall Street’s main indices fell on Thursday after gains in the previous session, as investors remained cautious amid mixed signals from the United States and Iran regarding prospects for easing tensions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by about 202 points, or 0.45%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.77% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.05%.

A senior Iranian official said the US proposal to end the nearly four-week war is “one-sided and unfair,” while stressing that the diplomatic path has not ended despite the absence of a realistic plan for peace talks.

Analysts said uncertainty remains the main driver of market volatility, as it is still unclear whether real negotiations are taking place between Washington and Tehran, leading markets to move up and down repeatedly. Despite this, markets remain relatively resilient due to investors’ fear of missing potential gains if the war comes to an end.

Technology stocks weigh on the market

Technology stocks came under heavy pressure, with the sector falling about 1.2%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined around 2.7% after three sessions of gains.

Shares of Meta and Google also fell following a court ruling related to social media addiction cases, weighing on the communication services sector.

Energy rises with oil gains

In contrast, oil prices rose more than 4%, supporting the energy sector to become the best-performing sector within the S&P 500.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that escalating conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a sharp rise in inflation and negatively affect global growth.

Federal Reserve under pressure

These developments have placed central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, in a difficult position regarding interest rates, as markets no longer expect any rate cuts this year after previously anticipating two cuts before the war.

Economic data showed a slight increase in jobless claims, indicating continued strength in the labor market, giving the Federal Reserve room to maintain its current policy stance while monitoring developments in the crisis.

Notable stock moves

Shares of Olaplex surged 51% after Henkel agreed to acquire the company for $1.4 billion.

Gold mining stocks declined as gold prices fell more than 1%.

Overall, declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, reflecting the cautious sentiment dominating investors amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Nickel prices jumped during Thursday’s trading after Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of the metal, approved imposing taxes on export shipments of the battery material.

On Wednesday, nickel futures rose as much as 2.7% on the London Metal Exchange after Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati announced that President Prabowo Subianto had approved the imposition of export levies on coal and nickel.

The minister noted that discussions are still ongoing regarding the precise tax rates.

In US trading on Thursday, spot nickel contracts rose 2.2% to $17,190 per ton as of 15:21 GMT.

Bitcoin traded below the psychological $70,000 level, declining by about 1.6% over the past 24 hours.

This performance came after an overnight rally that pushed the cryptocurrency to around $71,500, supported by hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. However, subsequent uncertainty over the direction of peace talks halted that momentum.

Renewed uncertainty pushed oil prices back up to around $103 per barrel on Thursday morning, weighing on Asian equities and overall market sentiment.

Resilience despite volatility

Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience, outperforming gold during the latest wave of geopolitical tensions, even as it remains in a corrective trend since its record high in October 2025 above $126,000.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at around $2.48 trillion, down approximately 1.7% over the past day. Bitcoin has also fallen more than 40% from its peak, but this decline has come amid strong institutional demand.

Continued institutional inflows

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States recorded five consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling $2.5 billion during March, led by BlackRock’s IBIT fund, marking the longest inflow streak since July 2025.

Data indicates that institutional interest has not significantly weakened, with funds recording inflows of about $458 million earlier this month following a period of outflows.

This reflects continued capital rotation in response to macroeconomic developments, as Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as an asset sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity.

Long-term accumulation

On-chain data, meanwhile, shows net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges over the past month, indicating a shift toward long-term holding as investors move assets off centralized platforms.

This transition from short-term speculation to gradual accumulation could support a future upward move, particularly with continued fund inflows.

Technical outlook

Analyst Rachel Lucas said institutional support remains strong, but a technical breakout has yet to be confirmed, noting that a move above $73,500 with strong trading volumes remains a key condition for a clear bullish trend.

She added that institutional investors are treating current declines as buying opportunities rather than exit signals, despite the price being down more than 40% from its peak.

As the relationship between Bitcoin and broader macro markets continues to evolve, the current trend remains a recovery within a sideways range rather than the start of a confirmed bullish wave.